Canadians will be paying more to smoke their cigarettes in 2020, with more than 50 per cent of the market expected to be in Canada.
Key points:Cigarette producers say they will see a 10 per cent increase in salesThe market is expected to account for a tenth of the global marketThis will mean that most Canadians will be able to buy their first cigarette in 2019While there is still a lot of uncertainty over how the world will react to a worldwide ban on cigarette use, a report from tobacco producers says the world’s largest tobacco market could see a substantial increase in the number of people using cigarettes, from a current average of 1.4 million cigarettes per person to about 1.7 million by 2020.
“We think that by 2020 we will have seen a 20 per cent reduction in smoking prevalence in Canada, with tobacco producers saying that by then there will be a 10-per-cent increase in cigarette sales,” said Peter Haines, the head of tobacco at Philip Morris Canada, a division of the multinational tobacco giant.
“The challenge is, what do you do with that increase?
You can either drive more people to quit, or you can take some of the money from those people and invest it into other sectors that people want to invest in, such as education and research.”
Cigarettes are now the second largest category of tobacco products in the Canadian economy, accounting for over 60 per cent in terms of sales, according to the latest figures from Statistics Canada.
However, despite a strong Canadian economy and the fact that more people are buying cigarettes, tobacco producers say there is more uncertainty about the global impact of the tobacco ban than previous estimates.
“This is a very important report because it tells us what the impact is going to be, and that is, will it drive down tobacco consumption?
Or will it make people who want to smoke less, and more people will quit?”
Mr Hainess said.
“If the data shows that it is the former, we will be very happy.
If the data does not show that, we are going to look at the impact on the economy, but also to look for other ways to stimulate growth in the economy.”
The report, published in the journal Tobacco Control, comes at a time when Canada’s economy is facing a severe shortage of the cigarette that is often consumed by millions of Canadians every day.
“Canada is the second-largest tobacco market in the world, and this report provides a clear picture of how much this market is going be impacted by the cessation of the worldwide tobacco ban,” said Anne-Marie Slaughter, the director of the Centre for Tobacco Control Research and Policy at the University of British Columbia.
“While the tobacco industry has long been a leading market in Canada for cigarettes, the market for cigarettes has been severely hit in recent years by the global ban on tobacco products.”
Tobacco producers in Canada are concerned about the future of the world tobacco market.
“There is a lot more uncertainty around what is going on in the global tobacco market,” said Andrew Schott, vice president of the Canadian Association of Importers and Exporters.
“That’s why I think it is important that Canadians have this report to see what the global economic impact of this is going do to their health.”
But Dr Slaughter said the research from Philip Morris was based on estimates of what was actually happening in the market.
It is not a comprehensive analysis of all the changes in the tobacco market, but instead relies on estimates from several companies that have different perspectives on what is happening.
“They’re all looking at the same place, so they don’t really have the same understanding of what the market is doing,” she said.
In the report, tobacco producer John Ritchie said that even though there are some differences between the companies, he believes they all agree that there is a shift towards less consumption.
“It seems to be a fairly steady decline over the last couple of years,” Mr Ritchie told the National Post.
“I think it’s not a big surprise that people would be concerned, but I don’t think it necessarily reflects the reality of the marketplace.”
While the global industry has seen a 10 to 20 per-cent decline in sales, Mr Rittmans company said that it was the smallest decrease since it started tracking tobacco sales in 2000.
“Even though the number has decreased in the last two years, we still have a strong market presence in Canada,” he said.
A study by the Tobacco Control Group found that the world was moving away from cigarettes to cigars, pipe tobacco and other tobacco products.
“In the last year or two, the tobacco control industry has been hit with a significant slowdown in the pace of global growth,” the report said.
However Dr Slaughter says the tobacco trade is not necessarily slowing down in Canada and that there will always be demand for tobacco products from countries around the world.
“At the end of the day, the main thing that drives this industry is the demand that’s out there,” she